Vision #8 - Some Post-Oil Basics (Draft!!)
Below are some un-ordered thoughts about what might happen when oil runs out - in due course I'd like our little farm to be an exemplar for the 'oil-free' life.
Thoughts on
fossil-fuel
Leading estimates are that coal and oil will probably run out in my lifetime, and definately during my children's lifetime.
Some areas of the world will be unaffected – they never
acquired the addiction to oil in the first place; most parts of the world will be
devastated. Politicians know this to be
the case, and yet what are their strategies?
Broadly twofold:
1.
Secure a relatively larger amount of the
remaining supply for the use of our own particular country than our
‘competitor’ countries. By doing so we
will delay the inevitable for our own country, whilst hastening the demise of
others, by a decade, or, optimistically perhaps two. The recent wars between the ‘west’ (hopeless
oil addicts) and the ‘east’ (possessor’s of the oil which is left) evidence
this kind of strategy.
2.
Reduce the rate of consumption. Examples include mandated fuel-efficiency
targets for cars and ‘speed limits’ for container ships. Again, this is a ‘delay the inevitable’
strategy, buying ten or twenty years of continued stability before chaos
ensues.
To start to imagine a future without oil and coal it is
probably helpful to first think about what the western world was like before
those fuels were discovered, or at any rate, before they were widely used. It would also be helpful to consider
societies which never developed the addiction in the first place.
The world will change in our lifetime and the change, albeit
hard in the short-term, like many changes will ultimately be for the better.
1.
The cost of oil, and hence ‘logistics’ will
continue to rise exponentially.
2.
The people in ‘low cost countries’ will continue
to demand higher wages, and no longer be content to produce electronic goods
and luxuries whilst not being able to afford them themselves.
3.
1. & 2., above, will mean that the
manufacture of products local to the consumption of those products will once
again be economically viable.
Intuitively we all know that shipping materials half-way around the
globe MUST be wasteful, but hitherto the unimaginative have been able to
produce evidence to the contrary. This
will very soon be impossible, short of committing fraud.
4.
This will allow the ‘benefits’ culture to be
largely eliminated, except in cases of real want, by replacing ‘benefits’ with
‘local jobs’.
Economists assume several correlations:
1.
(Economic i.e. Paper-Money) Prosperity is in
proportion with good health.
2.
(Economic i.e. Paper-Money) Prosperity is in
proportion with good education.
3.
(Economic i.e. Paper-Money) Prosperity is in
inverse proportion with crime.
Statistics show all of these to be incorrect. In our hearts we knew. We knew that Cuba, despite being as poor as
the proverbial church-mouse has the highest adult literacy rate in the world. We knew that the USA, despite having one of
the highest GDPs per capita in the world is close to the bottom in terms of
health.
Great ships also traversed the globe in the age of
sail. (Compare time taken to sail from
India to UK now and then, compare mass / carrying capacity of ships).
“Lean Living” means minimum input food production. Our tastes may need to change if the human
race is going to continue. In the West
we may need to learn to love apples again (in their normal season) instead of
bananas. In the West Indies they will
need to learn to love bananas instead of apples.
The “Lean Living” concept could be really useful – the 5
main points of lean:
1.
Define value from the Customer’s point of view
2.
Eliminate waste from each individual process
step
3.
Arrange process steps to minimise inventory and
promote flow
4.
Blah
5.
Continually re-examine 1-4 to pursue perfection.
Are mostly applicable – the
obsession with inventory is sometimes unhelpful with a food-production context,
however, necessary minimum levels are also context-specific.
We’ll need to stop our obsession with making logistics more
efficient – instead we’ll need to produce everything we need at the place (and
if possible point) of consumption, making logistics, however efficient,
obsolete.
What % of wool clothing in the UK is produced in the
UK? What happens to the ‘UK clip’? What % of clothing in the UK is made of
wool? Where do the materials for UK
clothing come from?
Extraction of all minerals and ores is dead. We’re now into re-using or re-cycling what
we’ve already got.
Steel will soon be replaced by wood for many structural and
decorative applications. The cost of
steel will rise exponentially, related both to the cost of fossil fuel and the
increasing scarcity of the ore, meaning that extraction is more difficult and
hence more costly.
Local self-abundance will be the future. Holidays will be dead – people will be born,
grow up, live, relax, work, in the same locality.
Granularity will be key – people will need to start to see
the ‘little picture’, intensively managing small areas of land without wasting
a thing.
A ‘pre-coal’ world-view will need to be redeveloped, with
modern home-comforts.
Prices and priorities will be rebalanced. More time and money will be spent on sourcing
and preparing food and fuel. Less time
will be spent on paid work, partly because there will be less of it to do, and
partly because we won’t be able to afford to do it.
By 2050 we will all be cottagers.
Electricity will continue (what % is wasted getting it from
a remote, centralised power station to our home? Compare this with Combined Heating &
Power options).
Centralisation is ALWAYS wrong.
The REAL cost of ‘cheap’ furniture, ‘cheap’ fashion etc.
will be understood – people will be more economically literate.
In the future, most people will use inherited homes, furniture
and belongings. If someone in the micro-community
needs a table, chair or house, one will be made to the pattern of the best one
in the community (or if possible, improved using the experience & ingenuity
of the community). Even better, one
which is surplus to requirements will be released from the ‘community 5S’ store
(the new charity store of the micro-community).
Reflect on how babies / children / old people will be cared
for in the future. Note to self: There
were Doctors and Universities before coal!
Watchwords of the future will be:
·
Cooperative
·
Individuality
·
Family
·
Community
·
Self reliance
·
Generosity
·
Abundance
·
Humanity
·
Responsibility
·
Ingenuity
·
Innovation
Ambition will take a different form from that displayed by
those who currently pursue ‘big-jobs’ working for others in their acquisitive
pursuit of fulfilment. In the future
such people will find their skills surplus to requirements.
Business owners, farmers and x, will step forward to provide
leadership when required in the new small communities.
Politicians in the conventional sense (wanton spenders of
other people’s money) will find little place.
Globalisation in the form which we currently understand it
will end.
Make do, mend, extend and re-use will
Globalization will be limited to the exchange of ideas and
not goods or people.
Wood is the answer:
·
Fuel – as wood, as charcoal, as other stuff to
be invented in the future….
·
Healing the atmosphere (as a net absorber of
CO2).
·
Construction material – houses, machines and
things
·
Food – for humans and animals
·
Soil stabilisation
·
Soil improvement – to bring minerals to the
surface, mulch etc.
·
Animal habitat – for game – link to “minimum
input” food production philosophy
Get passive!
Beware of so called “Green” technologies which require
fossil-based fuels to produce.
Check that it’s possible fully reprocess copper, steel and
aluminium using electricity, and not ‘raw state’ fossil fuels. Assuming these things can be reprocessed
using electricity, then this can be generated using hydro / wind / solar / CHP
/ biomass.
1000 examples:
1.
Shoes will be made of leather, wood, cotton,
wool and latex. Not oil.
2.
Blah
1000. Blah
There’s nothing like necessity to bring people together,
align their interests, aims, energy and hearts.
Peak oil is the necessity, the imperative. It should be welcomed, encouraged and
embraced instead of deferred and feared.
The Rules:
1.
Immediately stop doing things that you know to
be wrong:
a.
Don’t buy food which is produced far away from
where you live. Change your tastes if
necessary to follow this rule.
b.
Don’t buy ANYTHING from a ‘logistics’ company
(by which I mean a Supermarket or ANY national or multi-national company).
2.
Blah
10. Blah
